Producer Tools

Beef Market Outlook

The futures that drive cattle prices and cost decisions — feeder and fed cattle alongside the feed and fuel inputs that move your margins.

● Snapshot as of September 28, 2026 · refreshed weekly

Rancher's Barometer

One read on whether today's market favors the cattle producer — scored across all seven indicators below.

Bear Weak Neutral Firm Bull
Current read: Neutral — Every Input Eased, but Packer Disruptions Held Cattle Back — For the first time in weeks, the whole cost side moved your way at once: corn eased 0.9% to $5.23, soybean meal fell 3.8% to $361.70 a ton, crude oil slipped 2.1% to $92.60 and the national diesel average eased 2.0% to $6.38 a gallon. Cattle did not follow. Live cattle slipped 0.7% to $217.45 and feeder futures were flat at $331.90 (+0.05%) as Kansas plant absenteeism cut the week’s kill, while lean hogs eased 1.2% to $78.25. Cheaper inputs are real relief; a jammed packing pipeline is what kept it from showing up in cattle prices.
Feeder Cattle~$331.90, +0.05% vs. Sep 24
Live Cattle~$217.45, -0.7% vs. Sep 24
Corn~$5.23, -0.9% vs. Sep 24
Soybean Meal~$361.70, -3.8% vs. Sep 24
Crude Oil~$92.60, -2.1% vs. Sep 24
Diesel~$6.38, -2.0% vs. Sep 24
Lean Hogs~$78.25, -1.2% vs. Sep 24
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The Cattle Markets

Feeder cattle set what your calves are worth; fed (live) cattle set the ceiling feeders can pay. Tap “View live” on any card for real-time quotes.

Feeder Cattle
CME: GF · front-month futures
$331.90/ cwt
▲ +$0.15 (+0.05%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
The headline market for your calves. Front-month feeder futures finished the stretch essentially unchanged, while the cash CME Feeder Cattle Index closed Sept. 28 at $338.79 — a premium of nearly $7 over the board that says buyers are still paying up for cattle in hand.
View live →
Live Cattle
CME: LE · fed cattle
$217.45/ cwt
▼ -$1.62 (-0.7%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
Finished-cattle price — the ceiling feedlots use to bid on feeders. Slipped 0.7% even as boxed beef firmed, because Kansas plant absenteeism cut the week’s kill to roughly 484,000 head. When packers cannot run, the cattle back up and futures feel it first.
View live →
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Cost & Demand Drivers

The feed, fuel, and competing-protein markets behind cattle economics.

Corn
CBOT: ZC · #1 feed cost
$5.23/ bu
▼ -$0.05 (-0.9%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
The biggest feedlot input. Eased another 0.9% to $5.23 as harvest pressure builds — the second straight snapshot moving in your favor.
View live →
Soybean Meal
CBOT: ZM · protein feed
$361.70/ ton
▼ -$14.40 (-3.8%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
Key protein supplement for growing and finishing rations. Gave back 3.8% to $361.70 a ton after soybeans broke sharply Monday on news that China is keeping its import tariff in place — the first real relief on protein in four snapshots.
View live →
Crude Oil (WTI)
NYMEX: CL · energy
$92.60/ bbl
▼ -$2.01 (-2.1%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
Sets the baseline for fuel, freight, and input costs. Eased 2.1% to $92.60 on the week, though it remains headline-driven by the Strait of Hormuz and could reverse on the next development.
View live →
Diesel (ULSD)
EIA national average · fuel & freight
$6.38/ gal
▼ -$0.13 (-2.0%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
Hauling cattle, hay, and equipment. EIA’s national on-highway average eased to $6.38 a gallon for the week of Sept. 28, down 14.7 cents from the Sept. 21 record — welcome, but still far above anything ranch budgets were built on this year.
View live →
Lean Hogs
CME: HE · competing protein
$78.25/ cwt
▼ -$0.95 (-1.2%) vs. last snapshot (Sep 24)
Pork competes with beef at the meat case. Down 1.2% to $78.25 — cheaper pork gives shoppers a little more reason to trade down, a mild headwind for beef demand.
View live →
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Real-time quotes, charts, and every contract month across cattle, grains, and energy.
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How to Read It

Feeder & Live Cattle move together, but the spread between them — and where corn is trading — tells you how much margin a feedlot has to bid on your calves. When corn falls and fed cattle hold, feeder demand usually strengthens.

Corn & Soybean Meal are your ration’s biggest costs. Rising feed pressures feeder prices lower; cheap feed does the opposite.

Crude Oil & Diesel drive freight and operating costs, quietly shaping every marketing decision that involves hauling.

Lean Hogs hint at overall protein demand — strong competing-meat prices can support beef, soft ones can pressure it.

Prices shown are a snapshot as of the date noted and are refreshed weekly; they are not live quotes. Use the “View live” links for real-time data. Figures are approximate, compiled from public sources (CME Group, Barchart, Trading Economics) for general informational purposes only — not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always confirm quotes with your broker or market advisor before making marketing or hedging decisions. Akaushi Services LLC is not a licensed commodities advisor.

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Tim and Susie’s Take

What this week’s board actually means for a cow-calf operation — and what we’d be doing about it between now and the fall run.

For the first time in a month, every cost on this board moved your way at once. Corn, soybean meal, crude oil and diesel all eased. The catch is that cattle did not get the benefit this week — not because demand weakened, but because the packing plants could not run full.

Here is the shape of it. Since our September 24 snapshot, corn eased 0.9% to $5.23, soybean meal fell 3.8% to $361.70 a ton, crude oil slipped 2.1% to $92.60, and EIA’s national diesel average eased 2.0% to $6.38 a gallon. On the cattle side, live cattle slipped 0.7% to $217.45 and front-month feeder futures were flat at $331.90, up just 0.05%. Lean hogs eased 1.2% to $78.25, a mild headwind for beef at the meat case.

Change since the September 24, 2026 snapshot -4% -2% 0 +2% Feeder Cattle +0.05% Live Cattle -0.7% Corn -0.9% Soybean Meal -3.8% Crude Oil -2.1% Diesel -2.0% Lean Hogs -1.2%

Green bars moved in the cow-calf producer’s favor; red bars moved against. Monday, September 28 closes (CME/CBOT/NYMEX via Brownfield) and EIA’s weekly on-highway diesel average for September 28.

Why cattle did not follow the cost relief

The cattle story this week happened on the kill floor, not the futures board. Western Livestock Journal reports heavy absenteeism at Kansas fed-cattle plants after immigration enforcement in the region, and the week’s slaughter was estimated near 484,000 head against 529,000 the week before. When plants cannot run, finished cattle back up in the yards, packers get more leverage on the cash trade, and live cattle futures take the hit first — even as boxed beef firmed, with Choice closing at $380.48 on Monday. That is a capacity problem, not a demand problem, and capacity problems tend to be temporary.

The better signal for your calves is the cash market. The CME Feeder Cattle Index closed September 28 at $338.79 — nearly $7 over the front-month feeder contract. When cash runs over the board, buyers are paying up for cattle they can actually get their hands on.

-3.8%
Soybean meal, to $361.70/ton — first protein relief in four snapshots
$6.38
EIA national diesel average, down 14.7¢ from the Sept. 21 record
~45,000
Fewer head slaughtered week over week (WLJ estimate)
7.3%
Projected 2026 beef cow culling rate — a record low (OSU)

Run the numbers

Be honest about the size of the relief. Soybean meal’s $14.40-a-ton drop is worth roughly $2 a head on a steer eating two pounds a day for 150 days — nice, not decisive. Diesel easing 13 cents a gallon saves about $195 a year on a place burning 1,500 gallons, but it is still one of the highest fuel bills most of us have ever budgeted. And crude is being moved by Strait of Hormuz headlines, not by anything in agriculture, so one bad weekend can reverse the whole cost side.

What we would be doing

  • Price your calves off cash, not just the board. Futures are being pushed around by packer capacity this week. The feeder index and your local sale-barn reports are the better read on what your calves are worth right now.
  • Use the fuel dip, do not bank on it. If you have hauling or hay to move this fall, a 14-cent pullback from a record is a reasonable place to lock in some fuel, not a reason to wait for more.
  • Get your cow numbers straight before winter. Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel projects a record-low 7.3% cow culling rate this year, which means a lot of older cows are still out there. Preg-check and mouth them this fall, and budget replacements now instead of being forced into them next year.

Last thing. A week like this is exactly when buyers lean on certainty. When plants are short-handed and cattle are backing up, the pens that move first are the ones a buyer can trust — uniform, preconditioned, documented calves with known genetics. That is where Akaushi genetics and a clean health record keep earning their premium.

— Tim & Susie

Sources: Brownfield Ag News closing futures, Sept. 28, 2026; Western Livestock Journal Market Wrap-Up, Sept. 28, 2026; U.S. EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, Sept. 29, 2026 release; Derrell Peel, “Turning the corner on the cattle cycle,” BEEF Magazine, Sept. 29, 2026.

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Market Insights Reports

Long-form analysis from the Akaushi Services team — what the board means for your operation, in more depth than a weekly snapshot.

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